Big 12 Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 24 – November 30, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU
Trending Down (Efficiency): Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 7-0 | Elo: 1707.1 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.76 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Arizona State

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1527.9 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.33 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

BYU

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1681.2 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.01 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Baylor

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1636.2 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.51 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Cincinnati

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1561.7 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.93 (ranked 103 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Colorado

Record: 7-0 | Elo: 1581.7 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.32 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Houston

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1790.0 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.90 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Iowa State

Record: 7-0 | Elo: 1694.9 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.88 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kansas

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1649.2 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.25 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kansas State

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1571.0 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.07 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oklahoma State

Record: 7-0 | Elo: 1577.1 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.14 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

TCU

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1565.2 (ranked 93 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.47 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas Tech

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1673.6 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.92 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UCF

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1589.7 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.91 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Utah

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1538.0 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.96 (ranked 163 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1559.5 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.79 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference