Big Sky Update: Week 4
December 1, 2025The Big Sky enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 24 – November 30, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Idaho, Idaho State, Montana State, N Arizona, N Colorado
- Trending Down (Efficiency): E Washington, Montana, Sacramento St
Team-by-Team Analysis
E Washington
Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1414.4 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.65 (ranked 277 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Idaho
Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1430.5 (ranked 276 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.05 (ranked 220 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Idaho State
Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1456.0 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.66 (ranked 178 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Montana
Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1555.6 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.58 (ranked 169 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Montana State
Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1466.9 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.78 (ranked 153 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
N Arizona
Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1461.5 (ranked 240 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.34 (ranked 235 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
N Colorado
Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1580.1 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.98 (ranked 123 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Portland State
Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1496.3 (ranked 189 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.31 (ranked 183 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Sacramento St
Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1326.5 (ranked 359 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.38 (ranked 302 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Weber State
Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1429.8 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.15 (ranked 158 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As Big Sky teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
