Coastal Update: Week 4

Coastal Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Colonial enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1459.8 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.27 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Charleston

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1584.6 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.53 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Drexel

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1505.2 (ranked 177 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.99 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Elon

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1460.9 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.02 (ranked 142 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Hampton

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1443.1 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.12 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Hofstra

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1516.0 (ranked 162 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.06 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Monmouth

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1487.2 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.39 (ranked 156 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

NC A&T

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1374.3 (ranked 333 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.55 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northeastern

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1491.4 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.75 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Stony Brook

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1447.1 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.16 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Towson

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1592.1 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.97 (ranked 181 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1633.6 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.78 (ranked 69 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

William & Mary

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1505.7 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.80 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Colonial teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA
TagsCAA Coastal Coastal Athletic Association Colonial Colonial Athletic Association

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