Conference USA Update: Week 4

Conference USA Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Conference USA enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Conference USA teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Delaware

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1480.1 (ranked 212 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.64 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

FIU

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1398.9 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.45 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Jacksonville St

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1516.5 (ranked 161 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.25 (ranked 261 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kennesaw State

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1520.0 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.55 (ranked 224 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

LA Tech

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1552.0 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.25 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Liberty

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1617.1 (ranked 52 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.21 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Mid Tennessee

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1545.7 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.79 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Fouls Per Poss (Fouls Per Possession): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Missouri State

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1407.4 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.52 (ranked 321 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

New Mexico St

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1540.5 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.31 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Sam Houston

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1522.0 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.83 (ranked 136 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UTEP

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1464.9 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.28 (ranked 315 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

W Kentucky

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1526.3 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.33 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Conference USA teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCUSA
TagsConference USA CUSA

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