MAAC Update: Week 4

MAAC Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The MAAC enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1361.2 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.42 (ranked 351 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Fairfield

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1474.0 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.10 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iona

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1534.8 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.77 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Manhattan

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1438.4 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.90 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Marist

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1523.0 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.02 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Merrimack

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1512.5 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.87 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 2-6 | Elo: 1503.4 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.14 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Niagara

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1408.2 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.41 (ranked 317 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Quinnipiac

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1560.6 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.09 (ranked 189 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Rider

Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1445.2 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.41 (ranked 350 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Sacred Heart

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1442.8 (ranked 263 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.45 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Siena

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1484.2 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.57 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St Peter’s

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1461.3 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.90 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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