MEAC Update: Week 4

MEAC Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The MEAC enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MEAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Coppin State

Record: 2-8 | Elo: 1311.7 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.78 (ranked 354 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Delaware State

Record: 2-7 | Elo: 1396.3 (ranked 318 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -35.29 (ranked 363 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Howard

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1412.1 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.51 (ranked 270 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

MD-E Shore

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1336.1 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.83 (ranked 329 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Morgan State

Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1358.7 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.20 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

NC Central

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1405.5 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -29.70 (ranked 356 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Norfolk State

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1524.5 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.11 (ranked 267 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

S Carolina St

Record: 0-8 | Elo: 1437.5 (ranked 270 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -30.56 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MEAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMEAC
TagsMEAC Mid-Eastern Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

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