Mid-American Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Mid-American enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 24 – November 30, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Cent Michigan, Kent State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Ball State, E Michigan, Ohio

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1642.5 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.54 (ranked 34 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Ball State

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1425.8 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.42 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bowling Green

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1465.8 (ranked 234 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.41 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Buffalo

Record: 8-0 | Elo: 1444.6 (ranked 261 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.24 (ranked 108 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cent Michigan

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1442.6 (ranked 264 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.77 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

E Michigan

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1483.3 (ranked 209 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.58 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Kent State

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1605.1 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.51 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miami (OH)

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1574.3 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.63 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

N Illinois

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1359.2 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.38 (ranked 256 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Ohio

Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1467.9 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.87 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Toledo

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1537.9 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.93 (ranked 180 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UMass

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1503.2 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.41 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

W Michigan

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1427.6 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.38 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FTA Per Poss (Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mid-American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC

TagsMAC Mid-American Conference