Mountain West Update: Week 4

Mountain West Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Mountain West enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Air Force

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1341.5 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.86 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Boise State

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1625.2 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.68 (ranked 115 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Colorado State

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1651.8 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.43 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Fresno State

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1406.2 (ranked 306 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.04 (ranked 171 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Grand Canyon

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1619.1 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.49 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Nevada

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1554.9 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.16 (ranked 141 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

New Mexico

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1646.7 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.19 (ranked 151 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

San Diego State

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1616.5 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.25 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

San Jose State

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1448.2 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.32 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UNLV

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1540.0 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.25 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Utah State

Record: 7-0 | Elo: 1683.1 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.90 (ranked 31 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wyoming

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1473.2 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.49 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mountain West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMWC
TagsMountain West Mountain West Conference MWC

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