Northeast Update: Week 4
December 1, 2025The Northeast enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Northeast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 24 – November 30, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Cent Conn St, Fair Dickinson, Brooklyn, Wagner, Le Moyne
- Trending Down (Efficiency): St Francis (PA), Stonehill, Chicago State
Team-by-Team Analysis
Brooklyn
Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1458.2 (ranked 249 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.10 (ranked 195 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Cent Conn St
Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1564.5 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.98 (ranked 143 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Chicago State
Record: 0-8 | Elo: 1311.7 (ranked 362 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.64 (ranked 348 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Fair Dickinson
Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1377.1 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.64 (ranked 349 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Le Moyne
Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1388.3 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.53 (ranked 212 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FTA Per Poss (Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Mercyhurst
Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1389.0 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.44 (ranked 232 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
New Haven
Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1503.2 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.79 (ranked 323 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
St Francis (PA)
Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1392.5 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -29.38 (ranked 355 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Stonehill
Record: 1-7 | Elo: 1369.0 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.99 (ranked 309 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Wagner
Record: 1-4 | Elo: 1422.0 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.06 (ranked 225 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As Northeast teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
