Summit League Update: Week 4

Summit League Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Summit League enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Summit League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Denver

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1409.8 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.71 (ranked 286 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Dakota

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1413.8 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.75 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Dakota St

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1526.1 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.30 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Omaha

Record: 2-6 | Elo: 1477.8 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.94 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oral Roberts

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1372.2 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.43 (ranked 292 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

South Dakota

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1477.2 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.61 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

South Dakota St

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1534.2 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.24 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

St. Thomas – Minnesota

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1556.9 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.16 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UM Kansas City

Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1387.0 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.01 (ranked 345 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Summit League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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