SWAC Update: Week 4

SWAC Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The SWAC enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SWAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

AR-Pine Bluff

Record: 0-8 | Elo: 1299.1 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -31.16 (ranked 359 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Alabama A&M

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1367.7 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.09 (ranked 326 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Alabama State

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1463.2 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.16 (ranked 221 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Alcorn State

Record: 1-8 | Elo: 1423.7 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.36 (ranked 310 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bethune-Cookman

Record: 2-6 | Elo: 1460.0 (ranked 245 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.20 (ranked 246 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Florida A&M

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1388.7 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -36.42 (ranked 364 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Grambling

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1427.5 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.05 (ranked 299 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Jackson State

Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1470.3 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -30.68 (ranked 358 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Miss Valley St

Record: 1-7 | Elo: 1230.0 (ranked 366 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -33.81 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

PV A&M

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1322.1 (ranked 360 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.03 (ranked 298 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Southern

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1493.2 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.53 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Texas Southern

Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1436.2 (ranked 271 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.19 (ranked 341 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SWAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySWAC
TagsSouthwestern Athletic Conference SWAC

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