Week 4 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets

Week 4: November 24 – December 01, 2025
College basketball served up 1 non-Division I upset this week, reminding us that nothing is guaranteed on the hardwood. Let’s count down this week’s ten most surprising results.

#10: Bradley vs. Liberty

Final Score: Bradley 74, Liberty 64
Date: November 26, 2025
Venue: Bradley vs. Liberty (neutral site)
Favorite: Liberty (Ranked #111)
Underdog: Bradley (Ranked #146)
Predicted Score: Liberty 77.3 – 68.2 (9.1 points)
Upset Rating: 13.1

Key Factors:

• Free throws: Bradley 12-14 (86%), Liberty 11-21 (52%)
• Foul trouble: Liberty had 1 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
• Rebounding: Bradley 33, Liberty 20 (13-rebound advantage)
• Three-point shooting: Bradley 8-18 (44%), Liberty 9-23 (39%)

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#9: Southern Indiana @ Valparaiso

Final Score: Southern Indiana 64, Valparaiso 56
Date: November 26, 2025
Venue: Southern Indiana @ Valparaiso
Favorite: Valparaiso (Ranked #152)
Underdog: Southern Indiana (Ranked #301)
Predicted Score: Valparaiso 79.1 – 72.0 (7.1 points)
Upset Rating: 14.1

Key Factors:

• Three-point shooting: Southern Indiana 9-25 (36%), Valparaiso 4-26 (15%)
• Free throws: Southern Indiana 15-25 (60%), Valparaiso 6-10 (60%)
• Two-point shooting: Southern Indiana 11-31 (35%), Valparaiso 19-53 (36%)

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#8: Stony Brook @ Loyola Mary

Final Score: Stony Brook 71, Loyola Mary 68
Date: November 28, 2025
Venue: Stony Brook @ Loyola Mary
Favorite: Loyola Mary (Ranked #132)
Underdog: Stony Brook (Ranked #245)
Predicted Score: Loyola Mary 77.0 – 68.4 (8.6 points)
Upset Rating: 14.7

Key Factors:

• Three-point shooting: Stony Brook 7-22 (32%), Loyola Mary 8-29 (28%)
• Two-point shooting: Stony Brook 16-31 (52%), Loyola Mary 14-29 (48%)

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#7: Towson vs. Liberty

Final Score: Towson 72, Liberty 69
Date: November 25, 2025
Venue: Towson vs. Liberty (neutral site)
Favorite: Liberty (Ranked #111)
Underdog: Towson (Ranked #181)
Predicted Score: Liberty 74.9 – 64.4 (10.6 points)
Upset Rating: 15.3

Key Factors:

• Bench scoring: Towson 26 points, Liberty 6 points (20-point advantage)
• Rebounding: Towson 37, Liberty 24 (13-rebound advantage, 10 offensive)
• Three-point shooting: Towson 4-17 (24%), Liberty 7-30 (23%)

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#6: Texas vs. Arizona State

Final Score: Arizona State 87, Texas 86
Date: November 24, 2025
Venue: Texas vs. Arizona State (neutral site)
Favorite: Texas (Ranked #27)
Underdog: Arizona State (Ranked #106)
Predicted Score: Texas 80.9 – 72.2 (8.6 points)
Upset Rating: 16.1

Key Factors:

• Foul trouble: Texas had 3 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
• Three-point shooting: Arizona State 9-18 (50%), Texas 6-19 (32%)
• Free throws: Arizona State 28-36 (78%), Texas 20-27 (74%)
• Turnovers: Texas 19, Arizona State 11 (8-turnover disparity)

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#5: Indiana State vs. Alcorn State

Final Score: Alcorn State 81, Indiana State 74
Date: November 28, 2025
Venue: Indiana State vs. Alcorn State (neutral site)
Favorite: Indiana State (Ranked #190)
Underdog: Alcorn State (Ranked #310)
Predicted Score: Indiana State 81.4 – 71.5 (9.9 points)
Upset Rating: 17.3

Key Factors:

• Rebounding: Alcorn State 41, Indiana State 25 (16-rebound advantage, 13 offensive)
• Three-point shooting: Alcorn State 6-20 (30%), Indiana State 6-29 (21%)
• Two-point shooting: Alcorn State 26-43 (60%), Indiana State 18-35 (51%)

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#4: Stanford vs. Saint Louis

Final Score: Stanford 78, Saint Louis 77
Date: November 28, 2025
Venue: Stanford vs. Saint Louis (neutral site)
Favorite: Saint Louis (Ranked #59)
Underdog: Stanford (Ranked #119)
Predicted Score: Saint Louis 82.0 – 71.3 (10.8 points)
Upset Rating: 18.4

Key Factors:

• Three-point shooting: Stanford 13-27 (48%), Saint Louis 5-20 (25%)
• Foul trouble: Saint Louis had 2 players with 4+ fouls

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#3: Nevada vs. San Francisco

Final Score: Nevada 81, San Francisco 65
Date: November 28, 2025
Venue: Nevada vs. San Francisco (neutral site)
Favorite: San Francisco (Ranked #93)
Underdog: Nevada (Ranked #141)
Predicted Score: San Francisco 79.1 – 66.9 (12.2 points)
Upset Rating: 18.7

Key Factors:

• Foul trouble: San Francisco had 1 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
• Turnovers: San Francisco 15, Nevada 4 (11-turnover disparity)
• Two-point shooting: Nevada 23-49 (47%), San Francisco 12-26 (46%)

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#2: Green Bay vs. Iona

Final Score: Green Bay 80, Iona 75
Date: November 24, 2025
Venue: Green Bay vs. Iona (neutral site)
Favorite: Iona (Ranked #145)
Underdog: Green Bay (Ranked #229)
Predicted Score: Iona 83.3 – 68.0 (15.4 points)
Upset Rating: 23.0

Key Factors:

• Two-point shooting: Green Bay 15-36 (42%), Iona 14-34 (41%)

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#1: Delaware State vs. Virginia St

Final Score: Virginia St 62, Delaware State 58
Date: November 26, 2025
Venue: Delaware State vs. Virginia St (neutral site)
Type: Non-Division I Upset
Favorite: Delaware State (Ranked #363)
Underdog: Virginia St (non-D1, unranked)
Margin of Defeat: 4 points
Upset Rating: 21.0

Key Factors:

• Three-point shooting: Delaware State 2-13 (15%)
• Foul trouble: Delaware State had 1 player with 4+ fouls
• Bench scoring: Delaware State only 8 points from reserves
• Two-point shooting: Delaware State 24-59 (41%)

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Week 4 Summary

Total Upsets: 10
Non-D1 Upsets: 1
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 9