ACC Update: Week 5

ACC Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The ACC enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1466.6 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.91 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cal

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1511.1 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.80 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Clemson

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1670.0 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.36 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Duke

Record: 10-0 | Elo: 1789.7 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +44.88 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Florida State

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1522.2 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.89 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Georgia Tech

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1511.1 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.55 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Louisville

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1634.2 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.62 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miami

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1498.2 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.20 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

NC State

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1538.3 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.88 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Notre Dame

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1530.1 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.07 (ranked 69 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Pitt

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1519.3 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.42 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SMU

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1626.8 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.21 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Stanford

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1555.6 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.05 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1533.0 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.25 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNC

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1668.9 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.82 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UVA

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1589.9 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.11 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Virginia Tech

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1553.9 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.60 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Wake Forest

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1598.2 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.77 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As ACC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC
TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference

Leave a Reply