Atlantic Sun Update: Week 5

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic Sun enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1450.4 (ranked 256 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.21 (ranked 171 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bellarmine

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1340.9 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.56 (ranked 277 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1370.3 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.03 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

E Kentucky

Record: 2-7 | Elo: 1454.7 (ranked 251 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.25 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

FGCU

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1488.3 (ranked 208 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.91 (ranked 221 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Jacksonville

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1482.7 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.79 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Lipscomb

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1575.7 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.38 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Alabama

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1544.9 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.17 (ranked 247 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

North Florida

Record: 2-7 | Elo: 1411.5 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.92 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Queens University

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1488.9 (ranked 204 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.83 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Stetson

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1370.0 (ranked 343 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.53 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Georgia

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1413.4 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.80 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic Sun teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryASUN
TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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