Big Sky Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big Sky enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 01 – December 07, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): E Washington, Idaho, Idaho State, Montana, N Arizona
Trending Down (Efficiency): Montana State, Portland State, Sacramento St

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Washington

Record: 2-7 | Elo: 1413.5 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.49 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Idaho

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1452.5 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.50 (ranked 163 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Idaho State

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1472.8 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.21 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Montana

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1551.1 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.95 (ranked 200 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Montana State

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1466.3 (ranked 234 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.55 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

N Arizona

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1445.7 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.78 (ranked 239 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

N Colorado

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1594.3 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.67 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Portland State

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1494.8 (ranked 192 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.17 (ranked 214 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Sacramento St

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1325.5 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.45 (ranked 289 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Weber State

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1431.0 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.83 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Sky teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSC

TagsBig Sky Big Sky Conference BSC