Big West Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big West enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 01 – December 07, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Cal Poly, CSU Fullerton, Hawai’i, Long Beach St, UC Davis
Trending Down (Efficiency): CSU Northridge, UC Irvine, CSU Bakersfield

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1430.0 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.14 (ranked 286 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 3-7 | Elo: 1353.6 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.96 (ranked 279 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

CSU Northridge

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1513.1 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.81 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Cal Poly

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1438.2 (ranked 270 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.88 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Hawai’i

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1498.2 (ranked 188 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.97 (ranked 108 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Long Beach St

Record: 2-8 | Elo: 1358.6 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.36 (ranked 305 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UC Davis

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1492.7 (ranked 198 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.75 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UC Irvine

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1628.2 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.45 (ranked 164 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UC Riverside

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1529.7 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.35 (ranked 275 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UC San Diego

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1659.5 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.73 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UCSB

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1546.3 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.20 (ranked 194 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC

TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC