Mid-American Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Mid-American enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 01 – December 07, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Cent Michigan, Kent State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Ball State, E Michigan, N Illinois, Ohio

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1655.6 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.57 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Ball State

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1418.5 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.80 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bowling Green

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1471.8 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.56 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Buffalo

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1436.4 (ranked 273 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.99 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Cent Michigan

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1433.3 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.02 (ranked 281 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

E Michigan

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1477.6 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.03 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kent State

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1609.4 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.57 (ranked 142 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miami (OH)

Record: 8-0 | Elo: 1579.6 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.56 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

N Illinois

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1345.9 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.05 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Ohio

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1482.9 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.39 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Toledo

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1530.5 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.04 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UMass

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1466.2 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.32 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

W Michigan

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1448.0 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.00 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mid-American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC

TagsMAC Mid-American Conference