Summit League Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Summit League enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Summit League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 01 – December 07, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Denver, St. Thomas – Minnesota
Trending Down (Efficiency): North Dakota, North Dakota St, Omaha, Oral Roberts, South Dakota

Team-by-Team Analysis

Denver

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1411.2 (ranked 306 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.49 (ranked 298 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Dakota

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1398.0 (ranked 317 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.37 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Dakota St

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1544.8 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.18 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Omaha

Record: 3-7 | Elo: 1481.7 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.20 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oral Roberts

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1376.7 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.62 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

South Dakota

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1460.6 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.55 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

South Dakota St

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1529.6 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.08 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

St. Thomas – Minnesota

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1551.8 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.64 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UM Kansas City

Record: 1-8 | Elo: 1369.7 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.80 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Summit League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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