Sun Belt Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Sun Belt enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 01 – December 07, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Arkansas State, Ga Southern, Troy, UL Monroe
Trending Down (Efficiency): C. Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1498.2 (ranked 187 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.94 (ranked 273 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Arkansas State

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1597.1 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.11 (ranked 185 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

C. Carolina

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1405.7 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.34 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Ga Southern

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1478.0 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.50 (ranked 189 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Georgia State

Record: 1-9 | Elo: 1394.2 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.53 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

James Madison

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1550.1 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.53 (ranked 229 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Louisiana

Record: 1-9 | Elo: 1405.9 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.33 (ranked 347 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Marshall

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1521.5 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.07 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Old Dominion

Record: 3-7 | Elo: 1416.3 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.02 (ranked 218 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

South Alabama

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1575.3 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.68 (ranked 172 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Southern Miss

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1426.8 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.35 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas State

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1468.2 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.13 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Troy

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1562.4 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.79 (ranked 179 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UL Monroe

Record: 2-7 | Elo: 1321.6 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -29.18 (ranked 354 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Sun Belt teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference