Big 12 Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 08 – December 14, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU
Trending Down (Efficiency): Kansas, Cincinnati

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 9-0 | Elo: 1725.4 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.83 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Arizona State

Record: 9-2 | Elo: 1556.1 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.70 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

BYU

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1698.5 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.23 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Baylor

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1635.4 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.86 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Cincinnati

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1551.8 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.90 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Colorado

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1586.1 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.93 (ranked 64 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Houston

Record: 10-1 | Elo: 1795.9 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.05 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Iowa State

Record: 11-0 | Elo: 1716.7 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.47 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kansas

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1656.4 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.18 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kansas State

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1558.7 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.66 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oklahoma State

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1583.6 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.46 (ranked 90 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

TCU

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1563.3 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.96 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas Tech

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1668.5 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.89 (ranked 49 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UCF

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1597.2 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.01 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Utah

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1527.9 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.51 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1549.7 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.90 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference