Big Sky Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big Sky enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 08 – December 14, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): E Washington, Idaho, Idaho State, Montana, N Colorado
Trending Down (Efficiency): Montana State, N Arizona, Sacramento St, Weber State

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Washington

Record: 2-8 | Elo: 1404.2 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.09 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Idaho

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1447.2 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.58 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Idaho State

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1468.8 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.71 (ranked 174 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Montana

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1551.1 (ranked 114 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.06 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Montana State

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1459.8 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.30 (ranked 172 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

N Arizona

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1431.0 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.70 (ranked 267 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

N Colorado

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1594.3 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.71 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Portland State

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1494.8 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.30 (ranked 209 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Sacramento St

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1325.5 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.84 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Weber State

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1442.1 (ranked 266 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.16 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Sky teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSC

TagsBig Sky Big Sky Conference BSC