Big South Update: Week 6

Big South Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big South enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1400.0 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.14 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 1-11 | Elo: 1384.3 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -34.28 (ranked 361 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

High Point

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1610.2 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.23 (ranked 97 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Longwood

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1464.1 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.42 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Presbyterian

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1420.2 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.71 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Radford

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1469.1 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.82 (ranked 225 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNC Asheville

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1505.2 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.49 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

USC Upstate

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1366.0 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.90 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Winthrop

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1536.8 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.23 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big South teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Big South Conference BSOU

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