Horizon Update: Week 6

Horizon Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Horizon enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 4-8 | Elo: 1474.4 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.41 (ranked 294 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1352.9 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.71 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Green Bay

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1366.1 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.43 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

IUPUI

Record: 3-9 | Elo: 1306.6 (ranked 367 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.59 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTA Per Poss (Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Milwaukee

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1518.0 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.25 (ranked 238 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

N Kentucky

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1533.3 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.34 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oakland

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1527.2 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.77 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1504.9 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.72 (ranked 244 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Robert Morris

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1559.3 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.08 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wright State

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1454.0 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.44 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Youngstown St

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1547.2 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.31 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Horizon teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ

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