Ivy Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Ivy enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ivy teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 08 – December 14, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, Yale
Trending Down (Efficiency): Harvard, Penn, Princeton

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brown

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1474.2 (ranked 224 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.09 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Columbia

Record: 9-2 | Elo: 1480.9 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.28 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cornell

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1555.9 (ranked 108 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.64 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Dartmouth

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1448.5 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.84 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Harvard

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1479.2 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.47 (ranked 182 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Penn

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1450.0 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.76 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Princeton

Record: 3-10 | Elo: 1503.6 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.24 (ranked 220 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Yale

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1678.5 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.28 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Ivy teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryIVY

TagsIVY Ivy League