MAAC Update: Week 6

MAAC Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The MAAC enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1369.3 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.27 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Fairfield

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1468.0 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.44 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iona

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1546.6 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.34 (ranked 163 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Manhattan

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1434.0 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.28 (ranked 326 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Marist

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1546.7 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.64 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Merrimack

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1530.1 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.04 (ranked 254 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1492.2 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.17 (ranked 273 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Niagara

Record: 2-8 | Elo: 1388.8 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.36 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Quinnipiac

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1581.7 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.02 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Rider

Record: 1-8 | Elo: 1422.7 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.15 (ranked 347 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Sacred Heart

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1456.9 (ranked 248 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.68 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Siena

Record: 9-2 | Elo: 1493.7 (ranked 196 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.93 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St Peter’s

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1465.5 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.76 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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