Missouri Valley Update: Week 6

Missouri Valley Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Missouri Valley enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Belmont

Record: 10-1 | Elo: 1627.3 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.31 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bradley

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1617.3 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.47 (ranked 118 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Drake

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1639.1 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.47 (ranked 123 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Evansville

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1414.1 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.27 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Illinois State

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1554.4 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.78 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Indiana State

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1531.4 (ranked 139 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.43 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Murray State

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1537.4 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.29 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northern Iowa

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1581.0 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.39 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

S Illinois

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1509.8 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.92 (ranked 121 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UIC

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1459.8 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.68 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Valparaiso

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1451.5 (ranked 256 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.94 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Missouri Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMVC
TagsMissouri Valley Conference MVC

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