Patriot League Update: Week 6

Patriot League Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Patriot League enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1507.3 (ranked 175 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.79 (ranked 224 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Army

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1423.0 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.06 (ranked 316 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Boston U

Record: 4-8 | Elo: 1430.3 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.38 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bucknell

Record: 3-9 | Elo: 1447.0 (ranked 261 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.99 (ranked 281 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Colgate

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1505.3 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.55 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Holy Cross

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1394.9 (ranked 319 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.06 (ranked 270 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Lafayette

Record: 3-7 | Elo: 1371.9 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.61 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Lehigh

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1387.8 (ranked 325 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.28 (ranked 299 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 4-8 | Elo: 1353.3 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.11 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Navy

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1472.7 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.58 (ranked 203 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Points per Poss (Opp Points per Possession): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Patriot League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT
TagsPAT Patriot Patriot League

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