Sun Belt Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Sun Belt enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 08 – December 14, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Arkansas State, Ga Southern, Troy, UL Monroe
Trending Down (Efficiency): C. Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1523.2 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.02 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Arkansas State

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1584.9 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.36 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

C. Carolina

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1402.8 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.57 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Ga Southern

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1489.0 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.73 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Georgia State

Record: 2-9 | Elo: 1404.4 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.66 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

James Madison

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1550.1 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.74 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Louisiana

Record: 1-10 | Elo: 1401.8 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.43 (ranked 352 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Marshall

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1534.4 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.13 (ranked 142 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Old Dominion

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1413.7 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.18 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

South Alabama

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1563.5 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.13 (ranked 180 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Southern Miss

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1428.1 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.90 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas State

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1475.9 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.11 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Troy

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1576.7 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.19 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UL Monroe

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1318.2 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.37 (ranked 351 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Sun Belt teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference