ACC Update: Week 7

December 23, 2025 0 By Neill White

The ACC enters Week 7 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 15 – December 21, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, Notre Dame
Trending Down (Efficiency): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, UNC

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1456.6 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.03 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cal

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1526.2 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.86 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Clemson

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1674.8 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.83 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Duke

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1779.2 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +41.49 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Florida State

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1508.4 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.12 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Georgia Tech

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1523.0 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.38 (ranked 179 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Louisville

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1641.2 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.82 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miami

Record: 11-2 | Elo: 1511.5 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.28 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

NC State

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1553.8 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.03 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Notre Dame

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1526.2 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.82 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Pitt

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1529.4 (ranked 139 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.12 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

SMU

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1616.9 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.88 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Stanford

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1582.0 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.13 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1539.0 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.59 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNC

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1682.6 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.88 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UVA

Record: 10-1 | Elo: 1600.0 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.03 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Virginia Tech

Record: 11-2 | Elo: 1565.9 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.80 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wake Forest

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1595.0 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.22 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As ACC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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