Atlantic 10 Update: Week 7

December 23, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic 10 enters Week 7 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 15 – December 21, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Davidson, Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason, Richmond
Trending Down (Efficiency): Dayton, G Washington, La Salle, URI, Saint Joe’s

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1512.6 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.41 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Dayton

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1621.1 (ranked 52 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.04 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Duquesne

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1497.1 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.00 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Fordham

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1440.3 (ranked 266 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.41 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

G Washington

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1535.0 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.92 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

George Mason

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1651.0 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.45 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

La Salle

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1424.6 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.67 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1524.9 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.10 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Richmond

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1515.4 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.33 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1563.2 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.56 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Saint Louis

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1593.7 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.35 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

St Bonaventure

Record: 11-2 | Elo: 1605.8 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.59 (ranked 118 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

URI

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1513.6 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.64 (ranked 102 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

VCU

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1645.8 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.20 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic 10 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10

TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Atlantic 10 Conference