Big South Update: Week 7

Big South Update: Week 7

December 23, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big South enters Week 7 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1404.0 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.22 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 2-13 | Elo: 1374.1 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -35.86 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

High Point

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1613.6 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.03 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Longwood

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1470.8 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.72 (ranked 286 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Presbyterian

Record: 6-8 | Elo: 1407.1 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.86 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Radford

Record: 6-8 | Elo: 1468.0 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.20 (ranked 239 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNC Asheville

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1500.5 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.31 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

USC Upstate

Record: 8-7 | Elo: 1376.4 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.97 (ranked 237 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Winthrop

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1525.3 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.43 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big South teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Big South Conference BSOU

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