Big West Update: Week 7

Big West Update: Week 7

December 23, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big West enters Week 7 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1406.5 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.28 (ranked 301 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1365.1 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.63 (ranked 229 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

CSU Northridge

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1529.3 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.37 (ranked 274 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cal Poly

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1410.8 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.71 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Hawai’i

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1504.3 (ranked 178 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.14 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Long Beach St

Record: 3-10 | Elo: 1360.5 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.94 (ranked 310 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UC Davis

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1489.1 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.99 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UC Irvine

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1624.2 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.39 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UC Riverside

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1519.8 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.45 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UC San Diego

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1655.9 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.94 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UCSB

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1526.2 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.75 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC
TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC

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