Southland Update: Week 7

Southland Update: Week 7

December 23, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Southland enters Week 7 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1359.2 (ranked 350 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.47 (ranked 314 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Incarnate Word

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1421.0 (ranked 287 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.67 (ranked 293 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Lamar

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1465.3 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.02 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

McNeese

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1643.3 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.38 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

New Orleans

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1325.2 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.97 (ranked 261 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Nicholls

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1474.5 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.98 (ranked 247 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1428.3 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.53 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SE Louisiana

Record: 4-8 | Elo: 1444.6 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.69 (ranked 267 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 9-2 | Elo: 1499.1 (ranked 189 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.55 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1478.1 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.38 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1381.0 (ranked 330 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.71 (ranked 294 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1414.2 (ranked 295 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.09 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southland teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC
TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference

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