Summit League Update: Week 7

Summit League Update: Week 7

December 23, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Summit League enters Week 7 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Summit League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Denver

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1413.8 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.06 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

North Dakota

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1393.9 (ranked 318 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.55 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Dakota St

Record: 10-4 | Elo: 1560.9 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.97 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Omaha

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1494.4 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.20 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oral Roberts

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1367.1 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.14 (ranked 299 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

South Dakota

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1453.3 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.57 (ranked 275 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

South Dakota St

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1520.3 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.31 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

St. Thomas – Minnesota

Record: 10-4 | Elo: 1569.9 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.97 (ranked 134 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UM Kansas City

Record: 1-11 | Elo: 1353.4 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.25 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Summit League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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