West Coast Update: Week 7

West Coast Update: Week 7

December 23, 2025 0 By Neill White

The West Coast enters Week 7 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for West Coast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Gonzaga

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1736.2 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +42.27 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Loyola Mary

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1505.9 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.15 (ranked 133 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oregon State

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1502.2 (ranked 183 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.52 (ranked 158 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Pacific

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1413.9 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.60 (ranked 129 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Pepperdine

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1390.3 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.70 (ranked 231 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Portland

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1434.7 (ranked 273 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.95 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Saint Mary’s

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1704.6 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.02 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

San Diego

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1376.2 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.47 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

San Francisco

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1595.0 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.42 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Santa Clara

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1583.5 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.77 (ranked 115 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Seattle

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1546.9 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.12 (ranked 97 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Washington St

Record: 4-8 | Elo: 1498.9 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.73 (ranked 181 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As West Coast teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWCC
TagsWCC West Coast Conference

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