Big East Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big East enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 22 – December 28, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Creighton, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St John’s
Trending Down (Efficiency): Butler, DePaul, Marquette, Xavier, UConn

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1552.5 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.64 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Creighton

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1645.7 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.26 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

DePaul

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1455.2 (ranked 245 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.74 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Georgetown

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1517.8 (ranked 162 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.74 (ranked 72 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Marquette

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1576.3 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.85 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Providence

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1493.9 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.62 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Seton Hall

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1538.2 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.02 (ranked 30 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St John’s

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1675.3 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.18 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UConn

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1737.9 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.01 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Villanova

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1625.9 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.79 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Xavier

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1602.0 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.97 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBE

TagsBE Big East Big East Conference