Missouri Valley Update: Week 8

Missouri Valley Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Missouri Valley enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Belmont

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1646.8 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.43 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bradley

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1631.9 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.97 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Drake

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1635.7 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.84 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Evansville

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1400.6 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.47 (ranked 239 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Illinois State

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1572.0 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.24 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Indiana State

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1514.9 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.44 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Murray State

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1557.4 (ranked 108 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.02 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northern Iowa

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1585.9 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.23 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

S Illinois

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1494.0 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.65 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UIC

Record: 4-8 | Elo: 1442.8 (ranked 263 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.88 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Valparaiso

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1436.8 (ranked 271 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.01 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Missouri Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMVC
TagsMissouri Valley Conference MVC

Leave a Reply