Atlantic 10 Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic 10 enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 29 – January 04, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason, G Washington, Richmond
Trending Down (Efficiency): Davidson, Dayton, La Salle, URI, Saint Joe’s

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1509.7 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.99 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Dayton

Record: 11-4 | Elo: 1634.9 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.35 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Duquesne

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1505.5 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.93 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Fordham

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1433.5 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.58 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

G Washington

Record: 11-4 | Elo: 1551.1 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.03 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

George Mason

Record: 14-1 | Elo: 1664.1 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.95 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

La Salle

Record: 4-11 | Elo: 1414.0 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.81 (ranked 275 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1527.2 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.36 (ranked 279 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Richmond

Record: 11-4 | Elo: 1499.7 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.90 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 8-7 | Elo: 1527.0 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.84 (ranked 182 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Saint Louis

Record: 13-1 | Elo: 1599.7 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.24 (ranked 34 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St Bonaventure

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1599.7 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.43 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

URI

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1503.6 (ranked 187 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.06 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

VCU

Record: 11-4 | Elo: 1663.4 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.29 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic 10 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10

TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Atlantic 10 Conference