Atlantic Sun Update: Week 9

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic Sun enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1472.8 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.45 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bellarmine

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1335.9 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.18 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1383.4 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.94 (ranked 239 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

E Kentucky

Record: 4-11 | Elo: 1448.8 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.82 (ranked 289 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

FGCU

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1483.8 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.25 (ranked 231 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Jacksonville

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1451.0 (ranked 248 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.67 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Lipscomb

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1573.0 (ranked 93 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.97 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Alabama

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1494.7 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.11 (ranked 326 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Florida

Record: 2-13 | Elo: 1377.4 (ranked 327 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.33 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Queens University

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1493.7 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.60 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Stetson

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1376.2 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.21 (ranked 353 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Georgia

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1414.0 (ranked 292 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.82 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic Sun teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryASUN
TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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