Big East Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big East enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 29 – January 04, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Georgetown, Villanova
Trending Down (Efficiency): Butler, Creighton, DePaul, Marquette, Providence

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 10-5 | Elo: 1537.0 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.96 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Creighton

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1640.7 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.85 (ranked 49 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Steals Per Poss (Steals Per Possession): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

DePaul

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1462.9 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.30 (ranked 97 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Georgetown

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1509.4 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.18 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Marquette

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1559.3 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.66 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Providence

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1510.8 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.96 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Seton Hall

Record: 12-2 | Elo: 1561.9 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.58 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St John’s

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1666.8 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.49 (ranked 21 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UConn

Record: 14-1 | Elo: 1750.1 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.30 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Villanova

Record: 12-2 | Elo: 1639.9 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.47 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FTA Per Poss (Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Xavier

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1581.8 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.75 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBE

TagsBE Big East Big East Conference