Missouri Valley Update: Week 9

Missouri Valley Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Missouri Valley enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Belmont

Record: 13-3 | Elo: 1626.9 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.29 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bradley

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1618.6 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.37 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Drake

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1626.1 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.97 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Evansville

Record: 4-12 | Elo: 1387.6 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.40 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Illinois State

Record: 12-3 | Elo: 1589.6 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.70 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Indiana State

Record: 8-8 | Elo: 1515.5 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.80 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Murray State

Record: 13-3 | Elo: 1581.2 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.05 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Northern Iowa

Record: 12-3 | Elo: 1602.5 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.19 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

S Illinois

Record: 8-8 | Elo: 1510.4 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.38 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UIC

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1426.0 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.31 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Valparaiso

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1434.5 (ranked 269 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.13 (ranked 179 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Missouri Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMVC
TagsMissouri Valley Conference MVC

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