Big Sky Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big Sky enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 05 – January 11, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Idaho, Idaho State, Montana State, N Arizona, Portland State
Trending Down (Efficiency): E Washington, Montana, N Colorado, Sacramento St

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Washington

Record: 3-13 | Elo: 1387.6 (ranked 318 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.94 (ranked 282 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Idaho

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1455.1 (ranked 246 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.73 (ranked 185 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Idaho State

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1455.8 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.25 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Montana

Record: 9-7 | Elo: 1555.6 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.23 (ranked 206 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Montana State

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1489.5 (ranked 207 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.57 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

N Arizona

Record: 6-11 | Elo: 1394.5 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.56 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

N Colorado

Record: 11-6 | Elo: 1555.3 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.03 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Portland State

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1509.8 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.94 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Sacramento St

Record: 4-11 | Elo: 1307.9 (ranked 362 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.80 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Weber State

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1447.0 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.63 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Sky teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSC

TagsBig Sky Big Sky Conference BSC