Sun Belt Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Sun Belt enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 05 – January 11, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Arkansas State, Louisiana, Troy, UL Monroe, Marshall
Trending Down (Efficiency): Appalachian St, C. Carolina, Ga Southern, Georgia State, South Alabama

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1514.1 (ranked 162 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.11 (ranked 197 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Arkansas State

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1599.9 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.92 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

C. Carolina

Record: 9-9 | Elo: 1402.1 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.49 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ga Southern

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1516.6 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.22 (ranked 180 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Georgia State

Record: 6-12 | Elo: 1424.4 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.38 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

James Madison

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1532.0 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.66 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Louisiana

Record: 4-14 | Elo: 1392.1 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.86 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Marshall

Record: 11-6 | Elo: 1541.5 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.18 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Old Dominion

Record: 5-13 | Elo: 1397.7 (ranked 306 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.06 (ranked 220 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

South Alabama

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1567.7 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.77 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Southern Miss

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1455.3 (ranked 245 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.26 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Points per Poss (Opp Points per Possession): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas State

Record: 9-9 | Elo: 1466.8 (ranked 234 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.18 (ranked 270 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Troy

Record: 11-6 | Elo: 1594.3 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.02 (ranked 136 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UL Monroe

Record: 3-15 | Elo: 1274.4 (ranked 368 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.31 (ranked 335 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Sun Belt teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference