America East Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The America East enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for America East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 12 – January 18, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Albany, UNH, Vermont
Trending Down (Efficiency): Binghamton, Maine, UMass Lowell, UMBC, Bryant

Team-by-Team Analysis

Albany

Record: 6-12 | Elo: 1416.2 (ranked 289 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.63 (ranked 288 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Binghamton

Record: 2-15 | Elo: 1343.1 (ranked 350 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.93 (ranked 346 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bryant

Record: 6-12 | Elo: 1488.3 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.38 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Maine

Record: 3-16 | Elo: 1406.1 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.72 (ranked 292 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

NJIT

Record: 8-11 | Elo: 1371.3 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.02 (ranked 335 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UMBC

Record: 9-7 | Elo: 1428.0 (ranked 273 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.26 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UMass Lowell

Record: 8-11 | Elo: 1463.3 (ranked 238 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.02 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNH

Record: 4-12 | Elo: 1364.2 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.15 (ranked 316 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Vermont

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1572.4 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.03 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As America East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAmerica East

TagsAEC America East America East Conference