Atlantic Sun Update: Week 11

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic Sun enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 11-6 | Elo: 1496.9 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.81 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Steals Per Poss (Steals Per Possession): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bellarmine

Record: 6-12 | Elo: 1328.7 (ranked 360 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.31 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1386.1 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.35 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

E Kentucky

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1460.4 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.68 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

FGCU

Record: 8-11 | Elo: 1455.3 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.78 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Jacksonville

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1450.8 (ranked 251 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.76 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Lipscomb

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1578.5 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.22 (ranked 181 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Alabama

Record: 6-11 | Elo: 1465.2 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.09 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Florida

Record: 3-16 | Elo: 1365.7 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.59 (ranked 356 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Queens University

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1534.5 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.60 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Stetson

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1378.2 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.98 (ranked 348 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Georgia

Record: 9-9 | Elo: 1404.4 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.09 (ranked 321 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic Sun teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryASUN
TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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