Patriot League Update: Week 11

Patriot League Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Patriot League enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1507.5 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.84 (ranked 218 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Army

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1389.7 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.32 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Boston U

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1415.5 (ranked 290 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.09 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bucknell

Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1438.6 (ranked 263 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.09 (ranked 306 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Colgate

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1514.9 (ranked 161 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.15 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Holy Cross

Record: 8-11 | Elo: 1385.2 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.30 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Lafayette

Record: 5-13 | Elo: 1354.0 (ranked 345 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.64 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Lehigh

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1392.8 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.97 (ranked 277 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1346.1 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.12 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Navy

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1505.1 (ranked 177 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.95 (ranked 141 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Patriot League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT
TagsPAT Patriot Patriot League

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