ACC Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

ACC Teams Exhibit Diverse Performance Trends Heading into Week 12

The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) enters Week 12 with its teams exhibiting diverse performance trends, according to Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators. This analysis examines the performance trends of each team to identify both their current standing and future trajectory.

Offensive Trends:

Three ACC teams are experiencing notable declines in offense, as indicated by their rebounding percentages:

Boston College’s off-rebound percentage is trending downward strongly, indicating worsening performance.
Clemson also sees a decline in its off-rebound percentage, signifying a negative trend.
Miami’s turnovers have increased significantly, reflecting a worsening trend.

On the other hand, Duke is improving on offense with a rising off-rebound percentage, which is a positive indicator.

Defensive Trends:

Several ACC teams are facing challenges on defense:

Duke’s opponents’ shooting percentages and turnover rates are both trending up strongly, indicating worsened defensive performance.
Georgia Tech’s opponents’ shooting percentages have also risen significantly.
Florida State’s inability to force turnovers has led to a downward trend in its defensive statistics.

However, Duke’s defensive rebounding percentage is improving, reflecting a positive trend.

Insights from MACD Indicators:

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is a technical analysis tool used to identify trends and momentum shifts in a team’s performance. By examining the MACD metrics for each team, we can gain a better understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. A positive MACD reading indicates a strengthening trend, while a negative reading suggests a weakening trend.

As the ACC enters Week 12, these trends will undoubtedly play a significant role in determining the conference’s standings. By examining the data-driven analysis, fans can gain a deeper appreciation for the complex dynamics at play in college basketball.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami
Trending Down (Efficiency): Duke, Florida State, Notre Dame, Pitt, UVA

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 9-11 | Elo: 1458.4 (ranked 240 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.78 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Cal

Record: 15-5 | Elo: 1534.4 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.45 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Clemson

Record: 17-4 | Elo: 1703.3 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.62 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Duke

Record: 18-1 | Elo: 1813.8 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +39.00 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Florida State

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1488.7 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.48 (ranked 123 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Georgia Tech

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1504.9 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.75 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Louisville

Record: 14-5 | Elo: 1638.3 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.28 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Miami

Record: 16-4 | Elo: 1547.6 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.96 (ranked 34 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

NC State

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1584.1 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.48 (ranked 21 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Notre Dame

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1508.5 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.17 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Pitt

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1485.7 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.23 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SMU

Record: 15-5 | Elo: 1628.7 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.07 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Stanford

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1576.8 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.29 (ranked 96 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1527.5 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.50 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

UNC

Record: 16-4 | Elo: 1678.7 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.84 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UVA

Record: 16-3 | Elo: 1633.8 (ranked 48 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.03 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Virginia Tech

Record: 15-6 | Elo: 1568.4 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.86 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Wake Forest

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1570.0 (ranked 93 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.07 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

ACC Teams Show Mixed Results as Regular Season Winds Down

As college basketball teams in the ACC continue their march towards the tournament, several key trends are emerging for select programs. By analyzing these metrics, we can gain insight into which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

On the offensive side of the ball, Boston College and Clemson both show a downward trend in rebounding percentage (Off Reb Pct). Boston College’s Off Reb Pct has worsened throughout the season, while Clemson’s Off Reb Pct has also seen a decline.

In contrast, Duke’s offense has shown improvement in rebounding percentage, with their Off Reb Pct trending up strongly. Additionally, Duke’s opponents have struggled to contain them on the defensive end, particularly when it comes to shooting and turnover prevention. Specifically, Duke has experienced an increase in opponent turnovers, as evidenced by a rising season average.

In terms of defensive metrics, Duke’s continued improvement is evident across several areas. Their own turnover prevention has improved significantly, and their rebounding defense has seen a notable uptick, with a rising season average. However, there is a slight decline in Duke’s ability to limit opponents’ shooting percentages.

Meanwhile, Florida State‘s inability to force turnovers on its opponents has become a concern. After trending upwards strongly earlier in the season, this key metric has begun to decline.

As we head into the final stretch of the regular season, these trends will be crucial for ACC teams looking to make a push towards tournament contention.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC

TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference