Atlantic 10 Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

Atlantic 10 Week 12 Analysis: Trends and Momentum

The Atlantic 10 conference has entered its 12th week with a diverse set of teams showcasing distinct trending patterns. By examining the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, we can identify not just where teams stand but also where they’re headed.

Offensive Trends to Watch

Davidson: The Wildcats have been improving their offensive rebounding percentage, a trend that suggests they are becoming more effective on the glass. This increase in efficiency could lead to more scoring opportunities.
Dayton: Unfortunately for the Flyers, their shooting has taken a significant downturn. With a strong downward trend in this metric, Dayton will need to regroup and find ways to get their offense back on track.

Defensive Trends of Note

George Mason: The Patriots’ opponents have been turning the ball over less frequently against them, which could indicate that George Mason’s defense is becoming more susceptible to turnovers.
URI: In contrast, the Rams have been improving their defensive rebounding percentage, demonstrating a strong upward trend in this metric. This bodes well for URI’s ability to limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Saint Louis: The Billikens have seen a decline in their opponents’ shooting percentage, suggesting that their defense is becoming more effective at limiting scoring chances.

Other Key Trends

Duquesne: The Dukes have been trending downward in offensive rebounding percentage, which could negatively impact their offense’s efficiency.
Saint Joseph’s: The Hawks’ opponents are also committing fewer turnovers against them, further exacerbating Saint Joe’s defensive woes.
Richmond: Conversely, the Spiders’ opponents are shooting more effectively against them, indicating a worsening trend for Richmond’s defense.

These trends provide valuable insights into each team’s performance and momentum heading into Week 12. As we monitor these developments, it will be interesting to see how teams adapt and respond to their respective trending patterns.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): G Washington, La Salle, Saint Joe’s, Saint Louis, VCU
Trending Down (Efficiency): Davidson, Dayton, Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1518.9 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.00 (ranked 116 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Dayton

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1629.5 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.75 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Duquesne

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1505.0 (ranked 178 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.66 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Fordham

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1423.7 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.68 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

G Washington

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1540.6 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.10 (ranked 69 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

George Mason

Record: 18-2 | Elo: 1676.8 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.56 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

La Salle

Record: 7-13 | Elo: 1440.8 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.83 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 5-16 | Elo: 1477.1 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.85 (ranked 299 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Richmond

Record: 13-8 | Elo: 1484.2 (ranked 207 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.79 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1558.6 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.46 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Saint Louis

Record: 19-1 | Elo: 1649.2 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.22 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

St Bonaventure

Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1544.5 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.16 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

URI

Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1518.8 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.37 (ranked 102 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

VCU

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1665.3 (ranked 33 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.06 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Atlantic 10 Analysis: Week 12 Review

As the Atlantic 10 season continues, we examine key trends in offense and defense that may impact teams’ performances moving forward.

Offensive Trends to Watch

Davidson’s rebounding has shown improvement, with their Off Reb Pct trending up strongly. This uptick is particularly notable, given its consistent strength throughout the season.
Dayton’s shooting percentages have declined, a worrisome trend for the team. Their overall average is 0.52, but this recent dip suggests difficulties in converting shots into points.
Duquesne’s rebounding woes are becoming more pronounced, with their Off Reb Pct trending down strongly. This decline could impact their scoring capabilities and overall performance.

Defensive Trends to Focus On

George Mason’s defensive efficiency is concerning, particularly in regards to opponent turnover percentage, which has declined. This indicates that opponents may be finding it easier to score against them.
Rhode Island (URI) is bucking the trend with an improving Def Reb Pct, a sign of their growing ability to secure rebounds and limit opponents’ second-chance scoring opportunities.
Richmond’s defensive struggles continue, with their Def Reb Pct trending down strongly. This decline could have significant implications for their overall performance, as teams may be able to exploit these weaknesses.

Momentum Indicators

While the provided data focuses on current trends rather than future momentum indicators (MACD), it’s essential to acknowledge that sustained improvements or declines in key areas can significantly impact a team’s standing. MACD refers to a momentum indicator that assesses the rate of change in key performance metrics, such as scoring average and rebounding margin. These trends will be crucial to monitor in the coming weeks, especially as teams navigate their conference schedules.

As we move forward, we’ll continue to analyze these trends and how they contribute to each team’s overall performance. Next week’s analysis will explore updated MACD momentum indicators to further refine our understanding of which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10

TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Atlantic 10 Conference