Atlantic Sun Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

Atlantic Sun Teams Show Diverse Trends in Week 12 Analysis

The Atlantic Sun conference enters its final stretch of regular-season play, and with it comes a mixed bag of trends for the top teams. By analyzing momentum indicators like Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), we can gain insight into which teams are improving, declining, or remaining steady.

Offensive Trends

Jacksonville is showing signs of improvement in two key areas: turnovers, where they’ve seen a decline in their season average (0.177), and have been trending down strongly. This suggests that the team’s ability to minimize turnovers is increasing.
However, the same cannot be said for Jacksonville’s offensive rebounding percentage (OReb%), which has also been trending down but at a stronger rate than turnovers. This could indicate some struggles in securing second-chance opportunities.

Meanwhile, North Florida is experiencing an uptick in its shooting percentages, with a season average of 0.54 and a strongly upward trend. This improvement in scoring efficiency may be contributing to the team’s overall success.

North Alabama, on the other hand, is facing issues related to both turnovers (season average: 0.152, trending up) and OReb% (trending down), suggesting that these areas need attention for the remainder of the season.

Defensive Trends

FGCU has seen an increase in its opponents’ shooting percentages (season average: 0.54, trending up). This worsening trend could be a cause for concern as the team looks to secure wins.
North Florida’s defensive woes extend beyond just shooting, as their opponents are also committing fewer turnovers and securing more rebounds.

Interestingly, FGCU is experiencing a similar issue with its opponents’ shooting percentages (season average: 0.55, trending up).

Summary

In Week 12 of the Atlantic Sun conference, teams like Jacksonville and North Florida are showing promising trends in terms of reducing turnovers and improving shooting efficiency. However, defensive struggles persist for FGCU, while North Alabama’s issues with both turnovers and rebounding security may hinder their chances.

By analyzing these momentum indicators, we can see which teams are gaining or losing steam as the regular season winds down. As the conference enters its final stretch, these trends will be crucial in determining each team’s chances of success.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Jacksonville, Lipscomb, North Florida, Stetson, Bellarmine
Trending Down (Efficiency): FGCU, North Alabama, Queens University

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1507.3 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.90 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Bellarmine

Record: 7-13 | Elo: 1338.0 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.25 (ranked 294 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1399.4 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.33 (ranked 225 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

E Kentucky

Record: 7-14 | Elo: 1443.0 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.84 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

FGCU

Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1445.0 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.24 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Jacksonville

Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1442.8 (ranked 261 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.37 (ranked 319 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Lipscomb

Record: 14-7 | Elo: 1585.7 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.05 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

North Alabama

Record: 6-12 | Elo: 1459.7 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.33 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Florida

Record: 5-16 | Elo: 1381.9 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.41 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Queens University

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1528.5 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.64 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Stetson

Record: 7-14 | Elo: 1371.0 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.52 (ranked 341 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

West Georgia

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1402.5 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.93 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Atlantic Sun Week 12 Recap: Analyzing Key Trends

As the Atlantic Sun season unfolds, identifying genuine improvement versus unsustainable momentum becomes increasingly crucial. By examining trends through the lens of Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, we can gain valuable insights into each team’s performance.

The MACD indicator is a momentum-based metric that analyzes changes in moving averages to identify trends and potential turning points. A strongly trending down indicator suggests a team is experiencing downward momentum, while a strongly trending up indicator indicates upward momentum.

Offensive Analysis

Jacksonville has shown improvement in turnovers, with a season average of 0.177 and a declining trend (downward momentum). In contrast, their struggles with off-rebounding percentage are evident, as they post a significantly lower season average of 0.285 with increasing trend (downward momentum).

North Florida’s shooting has seen significant improvement, trending upward strongly with a season average of 0.54 (upward momentum). Conversely, Jacksonville’s struggling offense is reflected in their low opponent turnover rate and increased shooting percentages against them (downward momentum).

Defensive Analysis

FGCU faces defensive challenges as opponents’ shooting percentage increases, trending upward strongly with a season average of 0.52 (downward momentum). North Florida’s defense struggles include worsening opponent turnover rates and increasing shooting percentages against them (downward momentum), but they do show improvement in defensive rebounding percentage, trending up strongly with a season average of 0.623 (upward momentum).

Conclusion

These trends provide valuable insights into each team’s performance within the Atlantic Sun conference. By focusing on key areas such as turnovers, shooting percentages, and defensive rebounds, teams can identify opportunities for improvement and make informed decisions to optimize their gameplay strategies.

Stay tuned for next week’s analysis, where we will continue to monitor these MACD indicators to provide updated insights into the season’s progression.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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