Big East Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

Big East Mid-Season Review: Teams Show Diverse Trending Patterns

As we enter Week 12 of the college basketball season, teams in the Big East conference are demonstrating varied trending patterns. Our analysis using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators reveals both strengths and areas for improvement across the league.

Top Offensive Trends

Creighton: A notable improvement is seen in Creighton’s turnover rate, with a strong downward trend (Season Avg: 0.14, Trend: Down). This decrease in turnovers indicates increased ball control and more efficient offense.
DePaul and Georgetown, both showing upward trends in their offensive rebounding percentages (Season Avg: DePaul – 0.278, Trend: Up; Georgetown – 0.316, Trend: Up). These improvements suggest that these teams are becoming more effective at securing crucial second-chance opportunities.
Conversely, Marquette‘s performance is tempered by a decline in its defensive rebounding percentage (Season Avg: 0.719, Trend: Down), indicating potential pressure on their defense in the paint.

Top Defensive Trends

Butler: A significant concern arises from Butler’s defensive rebounding percentage, which has shown a strong downward trend (Season Avg: 0.719, Trend: Down). This decline could put additional pressure on their defense.
Creighton, Marquette, and Georgetown all exhibit upward trends in opponent shooting percentages (Season Avg: Creighton – 0.5, Trend: Up; Marquette – 0.52, Trend: Up; Georgetown – 0.51, Trend: Up). These increases suggest vulnerability on the defensive end.

Using MACD indicators to analyze team performance allows for the identification of key areas for improvement and potential vulnerabilities. By examining these trends, teams and coaches can make data-driven decisions to prepare themselves for the remainder of the season and capitalize on strengths.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Butler, Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence
Trending Down (Efficiency): DePaul, Seton Hall, Villanova, UConn

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1549.0 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.81 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Creighton

Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1639.5 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.17 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

DePaul

Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1482.4 (ranked 208 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.88 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Georgetown

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1490.3 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.16 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Marquette

Record: 7-14 | Elo: 1541.1 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.55 (ranked 121 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Providence

Record: 9-11 | Elo: 1482.3 (ranked 209 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.34 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Seton Hall

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1538.5 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.37 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

St John’s

Record: 15-5 | Elo: 1716.9 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.90 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UConn

Record: 19-1 | Elo: 1775.2 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.06 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Villanova

Record: 15-5 | Elo: 1635.2 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.32 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Xavier

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1570.2 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.33 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big East Wrap-Up: Key Trends to Watch

As we conclude Week 12 of Big East action, let’s examine the key offensive and defensive trends that will shape the remainder of the season. Our analysis focuses on the teams’ momentum indicators, revealing which squads are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable success.

On the offense, Creighton stands out with a notable trend: their turnover rate is trending down strongly, indicating an improvement in ball control. However, this positive development is offset by a decline in their Off Reb Pct, as they struggle to secure rebounds effectively. This may hamper their scoring opportunities moving forward.

DePaul and Georgetown are bucking this trend with notable improvements on the offensive boards, boasting strong upticks in their respective Off Reb Pct metrics.

On the defensive side of the ball, Butler’s Def Reb Pct is trending down strongly, indicating a weakening defense that could allow opponents to capitalize on second-chance opportunities.

Creighton and Georgetown also face challenges as their Opp Shooting percentages indicate worsening performances. The Bluejays’ opponents are finding increased success from beyond the arc, while the Hoyas struggle with turnovers.

Marquette’s defensive efforts have been effective in limiting opponents’ shooting, as evident by a stable to slightly improving Opp Shooting metric.

As we look ahead to the final stretch of the season, these trends will be crucial in determining which teams can sustain their momentum and make a deep playoff run.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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